1) The Playoff
First, the US was tasked with a home and home total-goals series against Barbados. At home on June 15, 2008, Clint Dempsey put the US up 1-0 less than a minute into the game, and the home team never looked back. When the dust settled the US had won 8-0, with two goals each scored by Dempsey and Brian Ching. The next game, on June 22, 2008, was more or less a formality, and Bob Bradley trotted out a mostly second-string lineup that included such household names as Danny Califf, Drew Moore and Danny Szetela. The US won 1-0.
Group 1)
The US won their first four games of group play against Guatemala, Cuba, Trinidad & Tobago and Cuba again by a combined score of 11-1 before dropping a game in Port of Spain 2-1. They rebounded though, beating Guatemala again, this time 2-0, to win the group with a +11 goal differential (GD).
Hexagonal)
The US started strong in the final stage of qualifying beating Mexico 2-0 at Columbus Crew stadium on February 11th, 2009, coming from behind at El Salvador to salvage a 2-2 tie with two goals in the final 20 minutes, and trouncing Trinidad & Tobago on April 1st in what was something of a coming out party for Jozy Altidore, who became the youngest American to score a hat trick in a World Cup Qualifier (that was Jozy's second WCQ start; he has started 4 of the 5 that followed).
The Americans then began to stumble. They lost badly at Costa Rica, salvaged a come-from-behind "home" win versus Honduras in Chicago, and were thoroughly outplayed in Mexico on August 11th, but still almost came away with a point. Still, El Estadio Ricardo Saprissa in Costa Rica and El Azteca in Mexico are two very difficult places to play. In fact, the more troubling of the three games was the difficult time the US had beating Honduras at home. Most recently, in September, the US put together two unconvincing wins, another come from behind 2-1 effort at home, this time against El Salvador, and a 1-0 victory on the road at Trinidad & Tobago. Now, in less than two weeks, the US will head to Honduras to play in an environment no less hostile than those of El Azteca and El Estadio Ricardo Saprissa (OK, maybe a little less hostile than Azteca) before returning home to our nation's capital to play a Costa Rican team that will be desperate for a win. Given the desperate situation that Costa Rica will be in, and the danger inherent in going into the final WCQ needing a result, it is hard not to think of the game against Honduras as a must-win. But it isn't. It is just an important game that the US can, and should, win.
What did I learn?
I decided to look back at the whole qualifying campaign, because I wanted to put the summer, with all its flashes of brilliance, spells of mediocrity and sometimes baffling lineup choices into perspective. After taking a look back, a few observations jump out that might inform how we should think about these next two critical games:
1) Clint Dempsey used to be a forward. This one is important, because if you've watched the last few games, you know that he has been starting in the midfield and playing some pretty uninspired soccer. You also might know that he scored 4 goals in the first 5 games of qualifying play, way back in 2008. You might also remember him scoring critical goals in the Confederations Cup and winning the Bronze Ball award for being the third best player in the tournament. Those goals came late in the game, after substitutions had been made that pushed him up from the midfield to the role of a forward. In the second round, Dempsey has been used largely as a midfielder, on the right side of the field, as far away as he can be from the creative play of Landon Donovan. He has scored one goal (a great one against El Salvador) and has looked alternately lost and lazy.
2) Charlie Davies and Jozy Altidore have started 2 games together. The two young strikers who are going to save US soccer may seem like a lock to be starting together up top, but they've only actually ever done so in two WCQ games, and the US didn't play particularly well in either. Jozy did score a nice goal off a better Landon Donovan cross, but Davies and Altidore have not shown any real chemistry. They both run towards the goal whenever they get a chance hoping to get a through ball, when what the US needs is a player running wide, or laterally, or coming back towards the ball. Both have a nose for the net, which is certainly worth a lot, but they haven't shown themselves to have much more than that, or to be able to work together. I won't be surprised, or upset, if we only see one of them starting up top against Honduras.
3) Michael Bradley has been getting a lot of minutes. He has started 13 out of 16 games to be exact. That is more than Oguchi Onyewu and only one less than Landon Donovan. Some of those starts are as a forward, while Dempsey is relegated to the role of midfielder. He did score two goals against Mexico back in February and has not played consistently poorly, but he has done nothing to warrant such a lopsided share of the playing time over such players as Jose Francisco Torres, Stuard Holden and Benny Feilhaber, aside from being the fruit of the boss' loins. It would be nice to see him sat against Honduras, but that is probably wishful thinking.
4) Bob Bradley has used a lot of players and formations, and shown a willingness to experiment with the roster. Unfortunately, this hasn't completely translated into more minutes for the players that probably deserve them, but he may be coming around. The consistent use of Holden as a second half substitute may be an indication that a start is just around the corner for him, and Bradley has even started Torres occasionally, although without success as those games have been tough defeats for the US (although the result does not seem to be correlated with Torres' play). The sometimes makeshift defensive lines that he has trotted out for big games indicates that he may be willing to take a chance on Edgar Castillo sooner rather than later, which is a move that I support.
So what do I expect in Honduras? A slightly different lineup than the one that took the field against El Salvador and Trinidad & Tobago. Either Davies or Altidore will probably start on the bench, which is the right move. Bradley will probably start Ching instead of just moving Dempsey up to forward, which is a mistake, but perhaps this could lead to earlier minutes for Holden and a move up top for Dempsey somewhere around halftime. Other than that, the midfield will consisten of Donovan, Bradley (unfortunately) and probably Clark. I am not holding my breath waiting to see Castillo starting at left back next game, but it is certainly possible given the play of Jonathan Bornstein for the past two games. Specter, Bocanegra and Gooch should also get starts in the back. Howard in goal is a given.
As much as this isn't exactly the lineup I would run out there, this is a lineup that can win the game, defending well and counterattacking effecitvely. Here's hoping the game is actually televised stateside, as I definitely won't be risking any political violence to see the game in person.
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