US qualification scenarios: play for the win in Honduras!

With 2 rounds of CONCACAF qualifying and the US sitting atop the group with 16 points, the chances of a sixth straight World Cup berth for the US men might seem almost guaranteed. A closer examination of the remaining schedule, however, shows that the US still has some work to do in order to avoid a 4th place finish and a dreaded playoff with the 5th place CONMEBOL finisher.

The good news is that the US Men are one of two teams guaranteed to finish in the top four in the group (Mexico is the other). The bad news is that the US men have the toughest schedule of any of the current top four. The yanks play away at Honduras, where the Hondurans are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying games, and home against a Costa Rican side that will likely be playing a must-win match.

That said, here are all of the possible scenarios which can lead to the US qualifying for South Africa in 2010:

1) The US beats Honduras: As unlikely as this is, the USMNT is going into this game with the full knowledge that their fate is in their own hands. If they can beat Honduras in San Pedro Sula, they will have already punched their ticket to South Africa.

2) The US beats or ties Costa Rica: While a tie against a tough Honduran side certainly does not hurt the US' chances, it does nothing to change the fact that the US probably needs to not lose against Costa Rica on October 14th at RFK Stadium.

These are the ways that the US can guarantee themselves a qualification. If the US ties or loses to Honduras and loses to Costa Rica, they can still qualify with some help from the 5 other teams in the group:

3) The US ties Honduras and loses to Costa Rica, but

a) Costa Rica ties or loses to Trinidad & Tobago: This scenario leaves the US with 17 points. Costa Rica would need to win both of its last two games in order to pass the US.

b) Mexico either loses both of their remaining games, or loses one and ties one: This is extremely unlikely as Mexico has the easiest schedule of any team in the group, playing home against El Salvador and then Away at Trinidad & Tobago.

c) Mexico ties both games and the US loses to Costa Rica by one goal: The US finishes ahead of Mexico on goal differential (GD). If the US loses to Costa Rica by 2, the US and Mexico are tied on goal differential and I have no idea what happens.

d) Honduras ties or loses at El Salvador: El Salvador is a strong squad, and tough to beat at home. This is certainly a possibility, though we don't want to count on it. Honduras needs a win in the final two games to pass the US.

4) The US loses to both Honduras and to Costa Rica, but

a) Costa Rica loses to Trinidad & Tobago: Costa Rica is at 12 points, and needs at least a tie and a win to get 16, where the US currently sits.

b) Costa Rica ties Trinidad & Tobago and the US does not get blown out: The US currently has a +5 GD to Costa Rica's -4. A 1-0 loss to Honduras and a 4-0 loss to Costa Rica would be enough to erase that advantage. A 3-0 loss to Honduras and a 3-0 loss to Costa Rica would also. If the US can avoid losing by 3 in each game, that will be sufficient to qualify as long as Trinidad & Tobago can tie Costa Rica.

c) Mexico loses twice

d) Mexico loses a game and ties a game, and over the final two games (Mexico GD - US GD) < 2: In other words, if Mexico loses and ties, the US must lose less than two goals to Mexico on net.

e) Honduras lose at El Salvador by a lot: Honduras currently leads the US in GD by a goal. Since we are operating under a scenario in which Honduras beats the US on October 10th, the US could still qualify if that game and the Costa Rica game are close, and Honduras gets blown out by El Salvador.

Those are all of the possibilities. While it seems that the odds are in the US' favor, a couple of points are worth noting.

First, we probably won't know until the night of October 14th whether or not the US receives one of the 3 automatic bids. A win at Honduras is extremely improbable. A tie at Honduras only guarantees qualification if we get some help from Costa Rica on the 10th, and that is extremely unlikely.

Second, if the US wants to qualify, it probably cannot afford to lose to Costa Rica. This can be immediately deduced from the fact that the odds of a win in Honduras are unlikely, coupled with extremely low chances of most of the favorable scenarios following 3) and 4) above. If the US does lose to Costa Rica but manages a tie against Honduras (scenario 3), the only reasonable chance the US has to finish in the top 3 is if Honduras cannot beat El Salvador. I certainly don't want to be counting on that result in order to avoid a playoff against Argentina.

Third, if the US loses both games, they are all but guaranteed to finish 4th in the group. None of the possibilities following scenario 4) are even close to likely.

All of which is a long way of saying: Bob Bradley, if you're reading this, play for the win in Honduras! A tie does the US almost no good, while a win puts them through to South Africa.